Will any CRISPR based gene drive be released in the wild by 1/1/2026?
7
22
Ṁ119Ṁ130
2026
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if any intentional or accidental release of CRISPR based gene drive occurs and it's detected by 1/1/2026
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?
25% chance
When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
Which applications of CRISPR technology will achieve regulatory approval for use in humans by 2030?
Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?
65% chance
Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?
76% chance
Which organism will the first released or escaped gene drive target?
Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030?
73% chance
Will gene-drives be used to control an introduced animal species population by 2030?
55% chance
Will any genetically modified human embryo be legally born by the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will I receive any kind of gene therapy created using CRISPR before I die?
59% chance