In addition to the Nancy Pelosi's well-covered visit, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and Senator Ed Markey have visited recently as well.
Resolves YES if any US governors, presidents, vice presidents, supreme court justices, or senate/house party leaders/whips, who are not Nancy Pelosi or Doug Ducey, visit Taiwan by the end of the year.
(Note that Ed Markey is not considered a major politician by this criteria.)
Sep 8, 12:02pm: I forgot to specify whether I'd be betting on this market when I made it, so I will not bet on this market.
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@FutureOwl Nobody seemed to want to light a match and throw it on the gasoline fire. No high end US administration travel to Taiwan has occurred since right before the market was created. This should be able to resolve NO.
Mike Pompeo, former Secretary of State and likely GOP Presidential Candidate, visited a few weeks ago.
Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, visited five days ago. Along with three members of the House Armed Services Committee.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-congress-house-representatives-taiwan-delegation-china-1740621
Various congressfolk are visiting Taiwan right now, though so far none meet the notability criteria I set out.
@FutureOwl Darrell Issa should count. He was chair of House Oversight for years, the wealthiest member of Congress and he will be a major committee chair if the GOP takes back the house.
@FutureOwl Fair enough. I actually didn't realize Issa wasn't still a ranking member of some committee.
@BTE The list in the market description is probably too narrow, but I wanted to make sure my criteria were concrete, didn't want to spend a lot of time deciding which committee chairs mattered, and thought counting all committee chairs would make the market too easy.
There is absolutely zero doubt about this happening. Especially with the 20th Congress in October. I bet there are 25 more members of Congress that visit alone. I can name two who have visited in the last couple weeks you didn't mention in the description, Senator Martha Blackburn and the Governor of Indiana Eric Holcomb.
@BTE Let me know if you spot a news item that'd resolve the market! I check periodically, but not obsessively.