Would you make a profit by buying Bitcoin next Monday and selling it exactly 30 days later?
8
200Ṁ2174
resolved Apr 16
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-01-27 and selling on 2025-02-26
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-02-03 and selling on 2025-03-05
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-02-10 and selling on 2025-03-12
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-02-17 and selling on 2025-03-19
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-02-24 and selling on 2025-03-26
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-03-03 and selling on 2025-04-02
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-03-10 and selling on 2025-04-09
Resolved
NO
Buying on 2025-03-17 and selling on 2025-04-16

Background

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency known for its price volatility.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on whether buying Bitcoin on the specified date and selling exactly 30 days later would result in a profit. For each option:

  • For the buying price, the highest price of Bitcoin on the purchase date will be used

  • For the selling price, the lowest price of Bitcoin on the selling date (exactly 30 days after purchase) will be used

  • If the selling price (lowest) is higher than the buying price (highest), the option resolves YES

  • If the selling price (lowest) is equal to or lower than the buying price (highest), the option resolves NO

Price data will be based on CoinGecko API.

https://bitcoin-monday-price-dashboard--divinepathway72603454.on.websim.ai/

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bought Ṁ18 NO

@FranklinBaldo This should resolve NO despite the dashboard showing a profit. I've only bet a little since creator is not responding to these issues. If anyone wants to bet it to 1% feel free, and I'll help make the case with @mods, showing how to get the correct buy/sell prices.

@deagol you're probably going to need to explain it like I'm a toddler. Or an accountant.

@Eliza wait I've seen this market before

@Eliza list which ones have the closing ambiguity problem and which ones are crystal clear

@Eliza the two answers that are at 1% are crystal clear, even the dashboard using the closing buy/sell prices shows them as losses. Those can resolve NO without any more work than what the dashboard shows.

The only one that does require one to go looking for the correct "buy at the high and sell at the low" is the one I replied to in this thread "3/10-4/9", currently at 11%. To get those prices, I went to CoinGecko and set the chart to candlesticks and 7d time period, then went pecking for the relevant dates, making sure to convert the timezones correctly (since the chart shows your local timezone but the candlesticks need to be for the dates in UTC). Unfortunately, the buying dates have rolled off, and even from the 1-month chart by now, but I did record those buying prices in an earlier comment. Setting a longer timeframe for the chart doesn't work as it shows 1week-lasting candlesticks while we need to see the highs only for these specific dates. Perhaps using the line-chart with a 2-3h resolution might give good enough, though still inexact values. I've also double-checked those highs and lows with other sources.

For the selling at the lows prices on this April 9 answer, it's still within the 7d window (only a few hours until it rolls off though), so we hover over the chart looking for the low on that date, again keeping in mind the timezone, and we identify $74,773 as the low, which is well below the buying price of $83,690 or even the closing price shown on the dashboard for the buying date of March 10.

For the last answer, we'll have to wait and see what the low price is tomorrow. If at any point it goes below $84,584 it can resolve NO as well, otherwise it's YES.

@deagol We have already tried to get clarification from @FranklinBaldo but didn't get any, following the Mod Guidelines does not give us many great pathways, but I think the resolution criteria in the description are more important than the linked chart which may have an error as you pointed out before. Hope that helps traders.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Eliza Thanks! About that final answer, at even today's (Apr 16 UTC) opening price, it's already below the buy price at the high on March 17 of 84.584, so it can also resolve NO.

bought Ṁ94 NO

@FranklinBaldo Today's low is already <84k making this a NO already, but the dashboard will show the close which will probably end up misleading this as a YES. I've been asking to fix this issue for almost a month and it's been ignored. So here we are, this is a NO per the criteria but the dashboard will say YES. cc @mods

sold Ṁ1 NO

@deagol oh well btc tanked $4k in an hour so the close could still show it on the dashboard as a NO now.

@FranklinBaldo resolves NO, thanks. cc @mods

@FranklinBaldo why have you abandoned this? I see you're still quite active in many markets and even have time to comment. Resolving an option takes two clicks! And even though fixing the dashboard may well be quite demanding, you could at least let us know here if you'll abide by the buy-high/sell-low criteria, or give some clarity on what you plan to do here, say explicitly delegate to @mods or cancel, or even to say "sorry, idk what to do".

@FranklinBaldo the prices for the 4 remaining answers here are distorted due to the referenced dashboard use of closing prices (matching CoinGecko's Historical Data table) for both buying and selling, which is contrary to the methodology stated in the description: buying at the high of the day and selling at the low 30d later.

The difference is significant. Although luckily it didn't matter for the past answers resolving NO, it's very likely that at least one of the remaining answers would be misresolved YES if based on the dashboard prices. Here are the correct buy prices (the high on those dates UTC) obtained by hovering over CoinGecko's candlestick chart, compared to the closing prices shown in the dashboard:

BuyDate  DayHigh  Dashboard
 Feb 24   96,481     91,397
 Mar 03   94,040     86,125
 Mar 10   83,690     78,784
 Mar 17   84.584     84,075

I hope you find the time to fix the dashboard prices so traders can bet on unambiguous outcomes here without the uncertainty of a referenced price table in contradiction with the stated resolution methodology. Thanks.

@FranklinBaldo also resolves NO.

Do we need @mods help here? No prob if you want to take your time, pretty small bets.

@deagol Is there a data source I can view to confirm your claim that it resolves No? Since it seems a simple matter of fact, I can resolve these answers to No.

@Eliza Thanks for resolving! As I explained in another comment, the intended data source is a creator-made dashboard linked in description, but unfortunately it lists buy/sell closing prices in contradiction to the stated criteria (buy at the highs and sell at the lows). I'm using CoinGecko's candlestick chart to obtain the highs and lows for the relevant days (since description and dashboard state that it uses CoinGecko's API), but it is very cumbersome and probably not worth your time for the small bets here.

@FranklinBaldo this can resolve NO, even using the close data instead of the high/low. really think you should try to fix that, eventually it'll be a false YES.

@FranklinBaldo was trying to see how to get the prices shown in the linked data table, and seems to me they are all closing prices instead of highs (buy) or lows (sell) as specified in resolution criteria. The closing prices are from CoinGecko's Historical Data table, but I couldn't find high/low data other than hovering over the candlestick chart (cumbersome). This is what I'm looking at:

A minor thing is the sell date column appears offset by a day, maybe related to the fix you did for the buy column?

@FranklinBaldo did you have a chance to look at this? pretty significant, given the wide difference between buying high selling low vs. doing it at close.

@deagol sorry don't har time yet, but I will look into it.

@FranklinBaldo can resolve, thx.

@FranklinBaldo this one should be "selling on 2025-03-19"

@deagol thanks for spoting it, I am thinking in automate this market and hopefully avoid things like that

@deagol I fixed it

@FranklinBaldo the buy dates in the linked dashboard are on Tuesdays. Will you still use that data or derive the correct Monday and +30d prices?

@deagol funny, here ot me It shows buying and selling aligned to the answers of this market, can you give an example?

@FranklinBaldo weird, now it's good. will screenshot if i see it again.

@FranklinBaldo seems it happened after midnight UTC, maybe a local timezone conversion thing or who knows.

@deagol thanks, i changed it and think it is ok now. anyway i will try to be careful with edgecases

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