Will Google's Gemini outperform GPT-4 in the SuperGLUE benchmark test by December 2023?

closes Dec 31

55%

chance

ALL

Google's Gemini, a large-scale machine learning model created by Google DeepMind, was unveiled at Google I/O 2023 [^2^]. The model aims to rival OpenAI's GPT, offering multimodal capabilities never seen in previous models [^3^]. Will Google's Gemini outperform GPT-4 in the SuperGLUE benchmark test by December 2023?

Market Type: YES or NO

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if Google's Gemini achieves a higher score than GPT-4 in the SuperGLUE benchmark test by December 31, 2023. If not, the market resolves to NO. Official announcements, credible news sources, and/or benchmark results must confirm Gemini's performance.

[^1^]: https://www.zdnet.com/article/every-major-ai-feature-announced-at-google-io-2023/

[^2^]: https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/google-ceo-discloses-gemini-ai-to-rival-openais-gpt

[^3^]: https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-palm-2-ai-large-language-model/

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Benxbought Ṁ10 of YES

Does the market resolve to NO, if Gemini is not released by December 31? What happens if it's released, but the superGLUE score is not published and can't be tested by us?