Will Australia win against France on Saturday, August 12, 2023? - 2023 Women's World Cup
33
669
αΉ€610
resolved Aug 12
Resolved
NO

⚽ Australia W vs France W

πŸ“… Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 07:00

πŸ† Competition: World Cup - Women

πŸ”‘ Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time.

πŸ• Market Closing Time: The market is set to close 180 minutes after the match starts. However, please be aware that an automated script is checking the API continuously, and the market may resolve immediately once the match is reported as finished by the API, regardless of the closing time

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I did not participate in any of these markets but I think they’re misleading and inconsistent.

predicted NO

good job

bought αΉ€0 of YES

lol

predicted YES

created a poll

predicted YES

Two parts to the resolution condition: "ends in a draw..." And "...at the end of regular time". Obviously the wording isn't great but one of these criteria is dominant in the mind of someone reading once (most participants) and resolving to No would be against the community guidelines as it misleads market participants.

predicted NO

@JamesBills One could just as easily say "a draw at the end of regular time" is the dominant portion, especially when the it would be meaningless otherwise because a drawn regular time would never have ended the match

predicted YES

@something612 I don't think you could just as easily say "..match ends in a draw at the end of regular time" and mean what you're implying.

predicted NO

I think @FranklinBaldo has done a bad job with these markets to be honest. Compare with the Sweden – USA market, where the title is on an identical formatting.

BUT, the description says:
"πŸ”‘ If the match ends in a draw, the market will resolve to NO. Penaltis and extratime are included" in that market, compared to in this one:
"πŸ”‘ Market Resolution: The market will resolve to NO if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time."

It would absolutely be better if it was consistent between the markets. But I think there's not a case for claiming that it's not obvious from question author what the intent was.

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg It would be pretty easy to express the intent the title should read β€œwill Australia defeat France in regular time” or β€œwithout needing extra time or penalties.” As is the title matches closely two other markets that resolved differently

bought αΉ€15 of YES

"if the match ends in a draw at the end of the regular time"
Match didnt end, at the end of the regular time, right?

@ChameLeon That’s the issue here I think. The match didn’t end, but it was a draw at the end of regular time.

predicted YES

@MaggieDelano

Oh wait so I can still be saved?

predicted YES

@MaggieDelano yeah, in a sense the criterion is two-part. the match needs to end, and it needs to end in a draw

predicted YES

@ChameLeon I’m going with this β€œthe match didn’t end” idea, the end part being key

predicted NO

@ChameLeon If you read it that way, the intent was to clarify that an impossible situation would resolve to no. Which doesn't really make sense imo

predicted YES

@something612 It seems like it might have been copy pasted from earlier matches? I do the same for my markets and forgot to exclude draw conditions

@ChameLeon IF the author was factoring in that it was a KO match, it makes sense to resolve NO. But IF they just forgot and meant to make it match the other market, I’d say they should resolve the spirit and resolve YES. My best guess is the author just forgot to update the criteria to factor knockout so then I’d resolve YES, but so many people bet on NO on technicality that N/A might be best.

predicted YES

@something612 yeah, on the other hand the title reads, will australia win against france, which they did.

predicted YES

@MaggieDelano N/A could make sense, but I'm not sure if the number of people / amount of mana on NO should be a factor towards that.

predicted YES

@MaggieDelano I want to go by the title but the question creator is in a hard place no matter what

predicted YES

@something612 For me, intent in general is very tough to be sure of, by reading the market criteria. Indeed, it is an impossible situation, and I was debating (also with my bets) between which way it was a lot.

predicted NO

@MaggieDelano Lawyering this to YES just from the word "ends" (as opposed to "is" or something?) would be wild though, N/A and NO are the only options I can really see arguing for

predicted YES

@something612 how do you interpret the title combined with this result to a NO result?

predicted YES

@ChameLeon Yeah tell average joe on the street Australia didn’t win, he’ll think your nuts

predicted NO

@ChameLeon I for one weigh the description over the title, precisely because there can be various conditions that change the conditions. And there's more room to explain those in the description.

predicted NO

@ChameLeon I don't see a huge problem with reading the description as clarifying that the title refers to regular time. Not the best clarity for sure but "Market Resolution: ..." doesn't seem like something to ignore completely

predicted YES

@LasseRasinen yes and when yhe descripiton is unclear, what do you do then?

predicted YES

@something612 definately not arguing that description is to be ignored. But when the description doesn't provide clarity, i dont think people are expected to rely on it.

predicted NO

@ChameLeon I don't feel like the description is unclear; result at end of regular time is a common condition in sports betting.

True, usually that's to allow betting on draws even in knockout games, but here it was explicitly said to be NO, and answers the question "Does Australia win". Sounds clear to me.

predicted YES

@LasseRasinen it sounds like you're ignoring the first half of the criteria. At the very least this market was poorly written and should NA.

@JamesBills I read it as β€œif the match ends [up being] in a draw at the end of the regular time”. Agree that it can be confusing though.