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Resolves YES.

We should keep making markets just like this one and use it to bankrupt Michaels Bot lol

@DylanSlagh never mind it looks like it's not even losing that much money 😭

@DylanSlagh I’m new here, is Michael’s bot consistent with a known strategy? (Eg always bet yes or something)

@AshleyDaviesLyons I'm not sure exactly, It might be a secret. I'm guessing its just some simple rules of finance but I don't know enough about finance to guess what

@AshleyDaviesLyons I don’t think the exact details are known, but there is some info available: https://github.com/mwhea/Manifold_Trading_Bots

Only 13 YES holders need to sell their position and like this market in order for this to resolve NO. In order to encourage this, I will offer my entire winnings from this market distributed among anyone who does this if this market resolves NO.

@IsaacKing 🤣 why buy in when it looked like you would lose?

@IsaacKing I sold my position and liked the market

A bunch of YES holders should sell out at the last minute. No profit for you in doing so, but you get to ensure those evil NO holders also lose.

Link back.

If someone wants to send me mana for me to sell my NO votes (i.e., to decrease the number of positions relative to likes), feel free. I'm trustworthy :)

Predicting markets can be such a thrill
But predicting likes, oh what a chill
Holders or Likes, which one will win?
My guess? The closing date will be a tie, within!

I didn’t see that coming.

@MichaelLatowicki I liked it so I could buy cheap shares and now I’ve bought cheap and unliked XD

others are likely doing the same, this will likely resolve yes

strange, I see 3 "YES" positions and 1 "NO", and yet the site reports there are 5 positions. How come?

@MichaelLatowicki I think it's back to normal now. I think it was because I bought NO and had a YES limit order which I set to roughly cancel out my NO. When my limit order was filled I was left with "0 NO shares", presumably because of rounding. I'm guessing I counted for the "positions" but didn't appear there because my number of shares rounded to 0.

When I bought some YES, the number of "positions" didn't change but my name returned to the list.

holders of this market should consider the implications of this market for their position
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/this-market-resolves-yes-if-the-mar

@MichaelLatowicki Yeah not linking that in the description of this market is some next level snake shit. Easiest creator block of my life

@dgga Is it? I feel like there aren't established norms for these "fun" meta-markets. I can see a case for, "If someone makes a market that radically changes the dynamics of your market, you should include it in the description," as well as, "You don't have to add information to your description as new markets, commitments, agreements, etc. are made that may change incentives," especially since one could add other markets like Michael's that further change incentives—that could be an arguably high expectation for "fun" market makers.

@dgga Personally, I accept I'm taking suboptimal risk by playing in these markets, but I find them fun! I expect most others have a similar mindset, that this isn't the serious side of Manifold with hardcore optimization.

@dgga actually I enjoyed the plot twist. I can see how someone who risked mana on YES would feel differently.

@dgga you probably didn't know about this neither https://manifold.markets/post/ad-aca04a48f19a