What should I know about Manifold before betting?
17
Ṁ1.1kṀ349resolved Sep 11
55%17%
A bit bet can wildly move the price of a market. So pay attention to price slippage: when you drop M$500 on a bet at 22%, the first 200 can move the price as high 95%, so those last 300 worth of shares are very unlikely to show a profit.
26%8%
There is no advantage to betting on a long term market compared to shorter-resolving one. Take the time it will take to resolve into account
19%6%
Your limit orders do not expire. This means that you'll be behind people updating on new information if you use them and forget about them
7%Other
9%
Market creators resolve their own markets.
11%
If the outcome of a market can be changed by the amount bet on it, someone with more M$ than you will determine the outcome.
4%
Always be on the lookout for the TRANCHE monster
0.7%
Even if you are very sure, don’t ever bet over several hundred.
0.0%
Reduce click bet amount to 1
9%
Sometimes, you can make more money out of tips and unique bettors rewards than out of betting
7%
Titles can be misleading. Always look out the resolution criteria, it may be different from what you had in mind. Conversely: Most people are betting on title, so you have an opportunity of gain over them
1.2%
Markets that don't start at 50% have messed up liquidity. This is particularly common for numerical markets that start at one of the extremes. This means that going in one direction will be way harder than the other, for very little gain.
17%
Me.
4%
The Kelly criterion
Top 3 most helpful answer win.
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@BTE Occasionally users will dump $50K on a market and everyone will either spike or get wiped. Gotta be prepared by using limit orders at the extremes.