Will an extended Ukraine grain deal be in place on 01 Dec 2022?
95%
chance
This market resolves to Yes if Reuters (or similar) report the UN-brokered deal (or something similar) for shipping Ukrainian grain from black sea ports to be active on 01 Dec 2022, and to NO if not. Trading stops just before midnight on 30 NOV 2022 CET and the market resolves soon after.
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United Nation reported it has been extended (for other 120 days) on the 17th of November: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/operational-update-17-november-2022
CNN reporting that the deal has been extended for 120 days
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