Resolution criteria

A motion of censure is regulated by Article 113 of the Spanish Constitution and must be proposed by at least one-tenth of Congress members (currently 35), including a candidate for President of the Government. This market resolves YES if a motion of censure against President Sánchez is formally presented to Congress before August 1, 2026. The motion requires an absolute majority of votes (currently 176) to pass. Resolution will be verified through the official Congress website: https://www.congreso.es/es/cem/mociones-de-censura

Background

Six motions of censure have been filed against Spanish presidents, with two previously filed against Sánchez in 2020 and 2023, both rejected. The government lost a key parliamentary pillar after breaking with Junts, leaving Sánchez without stable support and making each significant vote a rushed negotiation. Sánchez began 2026 without budgets, without a defined parliamentary majority, and with the threat of early elections on the political horizon. As of January 2026, the PP has called on regional socialist leaders to support an instrumental motion of censure against Sánchez to force elections.

Considerations

If a motion of censure is rejected, its signatories cannot present another during the same parliamentary session. Motions of censure cannot be presented during electoral campaign periods. The current Congress operates with shifting coalitions and uncomfortable pacts, with each initiative dependent on changing combinations and cross-concessions.