Will the value displayed on "How many days will this numeric type last?" be within 2x of correct?
Will the value displayed on "How many days will this numeric type last?" be within 2x of correct?
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100Ṁ80Jun 11
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Here's a numeric question about how long the current numeric question type will last; it currently displays "86.1 days expected". But perhaps we shouldn't take it at face value - if there's some issue with the current numeric question type, this means said type won't last as long, but also that questions using it may be less accurate.
This question resolves YES if the current numeric question type lasts between 43 and 172 days, inclusive. (That's half to twice the value displayed on the numeric question linked above (at the time this question was created), rounded to the nearest day).
Unless otherwise specified, this otherwise uses the same criteria as the linked question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.