How many days will this numeric type last?
29
1kṀ4413
Jun 9
88 days
expected
0.5%
1 - 9
0.7%
10 - 19
0.8%
20 - 39
0.9%
40 - 59
1.4%
60 - 79
96%
80 - 100+

If we disable creation of this type of numeric market (`outcomeType = MULTI_NUMERIC`) for more than a week, I will resolve to the # of days after today that we first flipped the flag/turned off creation.

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you tell me, mr manifold man

Do the options have to be simple ranges? I would like to be able to bet on the likelihood that the number of days will be prime, that the number of picoseconds the feature lasted is the code for a Turing machine that halts on empty input, and so forth

@pietrokc I mean you can do all of that with multiple choice (or for some of what you describe, just binary tbh). this is just a quick way to set up your multiple choice market to cover ranges a numeric value

bought Ṁ5 YES

Ooo, would this also have been a valid use for percent buckets like this?

/Quroe/what-percent-of-project-2025-will-b

@Quroe sure! That'd give more leverage than just resolving to prob with a binary market and an expected value at the top. We do have a max of 12 buckets right now though bc fewer buckets is a better experience much of the time. I could see expanding that if you're inputting your own answers, though

@ian The market title in my original comment is actually a live market link. Will there be support for retroactively making markets like this numeric? Would there be appetite to explore the idea of retrofitting older markets to the new format?

@Quroe That wouldn't be too hard actually! We'd just need to generate the midpoints for each of your buckets (claude does this) and change your outcomeType to MULTI_NUMERIC, and I think that's it

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