Will 2024 see a major, viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case, either in the US or globally?
88
713
1.4k
Dec 31
40%
chance

This explicitly EXCLUDES memes and lighthearted jokes that go viral, such as Will Smith eating spaghetti. This is about disinformation that’s intended to do harm. See the definitions for more:

  • 2024: Refers to the year in question.

  • Major: Significant in scale or impact.

  • Malicious: Intended to harm or deceive.

  • AI-generated: Created or fabricated by artificial intelligence systems.

  • Disinformation case: An instance where false information is deliberately spread to mislead.

  • In the US: Occurring within the United States.

  • Globally: Having worldwide reach or implications.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO

AI disinformation is incredibly overblown. In reality 80% of the people pushing for vague disinformation risks are really worried about extinction risk but are pushing for what's in the overton window.

Any doubt of that. 100%

You may need to define"harm" better. Most people think they are doing good.

Like if an anti abortion activist does something that meets your other criteria, pro choice people will view that as harmful.

But if a pro choice activist does something that meets your criteria, anti abortion people will think that's harmful.

Both people w Ould feel righteously justified.

And people in their own side would likely think it is optically bad to use deception, but not think it is directly harmful.

thanks

@Flowers you really should't be betting in your own market like this... the resolution is fairly subjective

@benshindel I am just playing around to get used to this thing. Now I will hold my no‘s and see what happens

Okay, this was a blast. Thanks @Flowers. And I'm keeping the long side of that bet at 25%. Hope you win.

@HarrisonNathan Now that you are offline people are buying again lmfao

sold Ṁ256 YES

@HarrisonNathan Okay, apparently I'm not, because it just went straight up again.

@Flowers I would buy back in though.

@HarrisonNathan I wonder if the waited like vultures until you go away hahaha

@Flowers Maybe, I was just about to leave. If they waited 2 more minutes I would have been gone and HODLing.

Looks like the people trading randomly in one direction may have run out of mana :(

@dominic Yes I noticed that we had three daytraders - you me and another guy - dominating the market for a bit, and then you caused a bit of "price discovery" by showing us your limit buy and take profit levels.

@HarrisonNathan Not sure if it was my limit orders that caused people to stop, or just them running out of mana. All the random people have lost between like 600-900, I forget how much you get to start but I think it's either 500 or 1000

@dominic I got 500 to start. So yes, we must have taken the bulk of it.

soldṀ125YES

@HarrisonNathan y’all need to chill

sold Ṁ125 YES

@Flowers I've made 2300 mana profit on an initial investment of 15 mana. That's all I put in. I'm now holding 300 long the yes position at about a 25% average and I would be okay with keeping that until resolution.

@Flowers Also, I only identify as one person by the way.

sold Ṁ266 YES

Infinite money glitch! Should I really go to sleep when I could keep getting this sweet mana?

@HarrisonNathan @dominic seems to be a faster clicker than I am, though.

sold Ṁ160 NO

The market is starting to move faster than I can click now. I had a bit of slippage on both the entry and exit of that last no trade, though I still made a 60% gain.

bought Ṁ40 YES

I didn't expect HFT to be relevant on Manifold

@dominic What is hft

sold Ṁ12 YES

@Flowers High frequency trading. Generally trading things where your advantage is being fast, instead of necessarily knowing the correct prices of things

More related questions