By 2030, will New Zealand ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ have officially announced a name change for international relations to include Aotearoa?
14
แน€1.4k
2029
17%
chance

Resolves as YES if before December 31st, 2029 the country of New Zealand announces from official sources that they want to change the international relations name of the country (date of the change itself may be after 2030) and that new name is in line with the below name criteria

Name criteria:

It includes "Aotearoa".(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aotearoa) or fully consists of the word Aotearoa.

An official name like "New Zealand Aotearoa" or "Aotearoa (New Zealand) is considered as YES for the name criteria.

Important list to reference will be "

UNGEGN List of Country Names - the United Nations"

(Although the list itself might not update on the day of the announcement)

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/geoinfo/ungegn/docs/11th-uncsgn-docs/E_Conf.105_13_CRP.13_15_UNGEGN%20WG%20Country%20Names%20Document.pdf

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conditional on National winning the next election, I'd give this probably 15% odds; conditional on Labour winning, perhaps 50%.

P(National win 2023)=0.7
P(Labour win 2023)=0.3
P(Name Change | N)=0.15
P(Name CHange | L)=0.5

P(Name Change) = P(National win 2023) X P(Name Change | N) + P(Labour win 2023) X P(Name CHange | L)
= 0.7*0.15 + 0.3*0.5 = 0.105 + 0.15
= 0.255

predicts YES

@B Nice. I like the conditional approach. Though there is an additional election in 2026 which outcomes greatly influence this issue. (Let's set aside 2029 and consider that one too close to the deadline)

My thoughts more go towards the later part of the decade. Quite likely to have labour again in charge (natural swinging motion) and likely that the public opinion for this change is even more favourable by then (regardless of who's in power).

You didn't consider later election cycles? For a reason?

predicts NO

@FelixHoornaert when was the last time there was a one term government in NZ? maybe the 1980s? I think all govts since the bolger-shipley govt have got 3 terms so a one term national govt is unlikely.

@B I feel youโ€™re too bullish on Labour changing the name. 50% is a lot. Any change would (morally) require a referendum, and I canโ€™t see Labour being bold enough to go down that route after the flag, cannabis, and across the ditch the voice.

@Guess entirely agreed! I gave it 50% when the market was at 38% and I was trying to argue it down, so I erred on the upside.