Dina Boluarte was the vice president of Pedro Castillo, who was elected to serve a five year term until July 28, 2026. On December 7, 2022 president Castillo attempted to illegally dissolve the congress and the judiciary, after which he was impeached, ousted and arrested. Dina Boluarte was sworn in as the new president the same day to complete Castillo's term until 2026.
Following increased internal pressures and protests, Boluarte offered to cut short his term and call for new general elections in 2023 or 2024. However, Congress was unwilling to approve such a proposal even when public opinion favored a reduced term. As protests diminished around the country, neither the president nor Congress have attempted to propose new elections again although Boluarte remains deeply unpopular.
The market will resolve to NO if president Bolaurte resigns, is ousted by Congress in an impeachment process or through a proposal of new elections or if she dies before July 28, 2026.
Peru has had 6 presidents in 7 years. The country has gone through the worst political crisis in the last 20 years since 2016. So, even if the stats point that there should be a change of president this year, I believe Dina will stay as president until next elections on 2026, since she will not be motivated to generate another political turmoil. Also, if she would want to do new elections she would have already announce them .