Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

Plus

Ṁ705

2026

16%

chance

ALL

Some Ukrainian supporters have recently blamed Russia for causing the unseasonable Summer rain in Ukraine as a means of hampering their supply efforts to Bakhmut.

An example of a climate manipulating weapon would be something like cloud seeding with the intent of using weather to gain some kind of battlefield advantage.
In the past Israel has also been accused of doing something like this to cause droughts in Syria during their civil war.

IF/When the conflict expands beyond the Ukraine/ Russia this market is only looking at climate weapons being used only in the context of the Ukraine/ Russo war so an expansion of the conflict will mark that as the end date for this market.
(I will later make other market for "Up till now" and "By 2024")

This will resolve YES if;

At any point in the conflict Climate manipulation is used with the intent for military gain.;
>This can be conducted by any agent wishing to manipulate the War.
>There will need to be some evidence that this was used and reports for this to resolve YES.
(Given the fog of war this could potentially be resolved after the conflict is settled and information comes out.)
>The primary intent of the action must be weather/ climate manipulation, causing a massive forrest fire which also may happen to trigger rain from the smoke would not satisfy.

EDIT: 17/05/2023

>Given that any perpetrator is likely to deny that this was done for military ends this may be resolved as yes if it seems likely or is debatable. For example if the Ukraine was to conduct a rain seeding operation which prolongs the muddy season and has obvious strategic benefits yet says that they were doing it for their farms this would resolve as yes even though proving that it was the primary intent is hard.

This will resolve NO if;
>After 1 year after the conflict there is no proof of climate weapons being used.

This section I may update;

For some extra info in this field.