There are markets on Manifold for every constituency in the upcoming UK general election but as far as I know, nobody has written some code to extract the leader in each constituency to create a seat projection. Will somebody do this by market close in one week?
Feel free to take this market's liquidity as a sort of bounty if you want to create this.
If you add in other features like sensitivity analysis, live updating, or a colour-coded map I will be very impressed and grateful and will maybe put up a NO limit order for you to take as a thank you.
Needs to be freely available to others to resolve YES. If you just tell me you have a private one, that doesn't count.
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I've made a first pass at this here: https://manifold-uk-election-2024.netlify.app/.
Code at https://github.com/onthestairs/manifold-election-2024.
It updates every 10 minutes or so on a cron job (using github actions).
When I get time later today I will make it a bit more pretty and hopefully add a map.
Weirdly as well there's 651 markets in the group, whereas there's only 650 constituencies. I need to figure out that discrepency.
@AustinPlatt One was an accidental duplicate iirc, it should be closed / N/A so hopefully easy to ID and ignore.