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MANIFOLD
Will I manage to spend less than 90 minutes on Manifold on my phone every day this week?
6
Ṁ110Ṁ1.9k
resolved Jul 10
Resolved
YES

I've been spending too much time on Manifold, with 5 days last week being over 90 minutes (3 days the week before, 5 days the week before that). From today, I've set myself a target of no more than 90 minutes per day. Will I stick to that target every day this week (the first week I'm trying it)?

Time spent on my computer doesn't count, but historically that's been a small minority of my Manifold time - it's the phone that's really addictive. I'm going to try not to cheat the target by spending more time on Manifold on my computer, but if I do cheat it in such a way, this market will still resolve YES, as long as the phone time is less than 90 minutes.

Resolves according to my phone's screentime measurement functionality. I've set it so that there's a trivial inconvenience to spend longer than 90 minutes each day.

I will not bet NO in this market as it would be trivial for me to force a NO resolution. I will bet YES, in order to provide an incentive for myself. Depending on how I feel I may bet quite a lot of YES, even above my credence in a positive outcome, to increase my incentives further.

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79, 81, 62, 64 for Thursday to Sunday. Resolves YES. Turns out the weekend was much easier than I thought.

predictedYES

@Fion also I want to say thanks to those who bet NO and helped give me an incentive. I'm not sure if you were betting in rational self interest or in order to help me but I appreciate it either way. :)

predictedYES

85, 70, 87 for Monday to Wednesday.

Finding it pretty hard, but I think I'm probably pig headed enough to push through. The weekend might be a challenge though.

@Fion I've put an incentive limit order at 95%. My true credence is probably 90%.

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