• One rep max for two-handed pull ups is +61% body weight in November (up from +50% in February).

• One rep max for one arm chin ups is:

  • 82% body weight, measured using weights, pulleys, force meter (December)

  • a 40-80lbs resistance band around my feet. (May, August, December).

• I can go from 90 degrees to the top (Chin up, December).

• I can go from the bottom to the top with an assisting hand on the bicep of my pulling hand (Chin up, December).

One arm chin up also resolves YES.

If I manage this before the deadline, market resolves YES early. If I decide to give up, I may resolve NO early. (But there's a bit of a grey area around "giving up" so I'll have to see. I'll only resolve NO early if I'm sure.)

I will not take a NO position in this market, but I might sell some YES if I think it gets overpriced, and I might put in NO limit orders for the same reason.

This description used to be much longer. I have removed some waffle and also removed my commitment not to provide updates or bet after end of February 2023. (I asked bettors for permission first.) Feel free to read the description history. I will try to keep this one vaguely up to date if I pass any concrete milestones. Feel free to ask for any other relevant benchmarks and I'll add them.