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MANIFOLD
What will be the worst thing to go wrong at my wedding? [Add answers]
37
แน€2.1kแน€8.7k
Oct 4
14%
Somebody who has had a little too much alcohol makes a scene
13%
Other
12%
Old person falls down
11%
The ceremony has to take place under cover due to weather
9%
There's a really bad speech
5%
Someone who can't sing tries to sing
4%
The bar runs out of something in high demand
3%
Wedding crashed by uninvited guest(s)
3%
A child has a tumble and a cry
3%
A member of the wedding party breaks a heel ๐Ÿ‘ 
3%
Someone is run to the ER
3%
Inept priest/officiator
3%
Fion and/or their partner have a wardrobe malfunction
3%
Somebody is unable to attend with < 1 week notice
3%
Fion gets a stitch while dancing
2%
Somebody punches somebody else (hard)
1.5%
Music doesn't come on cue leading to an awkward moment
1.4%
Something belonging to the venue gets damaged and we have to pay
1.3%
Somebody gets a sprained ankle dancing

I'm getting married this month! What could possibly go wrong? Add answers, be as creative and cruel as you like. I won't bet (except to initialise some very low probabilities) but I might add more answers.

Resolves to the worst thing that actually happens. "Worst" is my judgement. Feel free to ask me which of two options would be worse. If there are two answers that overlap (e.g. "Somebody dies" and "the best man dies"; or "an ambulance gets called" and "an ambulance gets called because of a severe allergic reaction to the food"), I'll probably resolve to the more specific one, unless it feels really non-central and not so bad. If in doubt, ask me which one would count as worse.

If none of the listed options goes wrong, resolves Other. I'm not going to add a "nothing goes wrong" option, because even though I'm an optimist and I'm confident it'll be a wonderful day, the line between "nothing goes wrong" and "something extremely trivial goes wrong" is very fine, and part of the fun is guessing just how trivial the worst thing will be.

The venue is in Scotland and there will be about 100 people. There will be fire, hours of dancing, outdoor parts, a bridge, children... lots of hazards!

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I reckon this one is overpriced at 14%. I think it's neither particularly likely nor particularly severe.

There are only two speeches that could surprise me and I trust both speakers.

Mawwage

@TheAllMemeingEye And so the seams of market manipulation peeled open.

@Quroe arguably it goes both ways, they can technically avoid it resolving YES by inviting everyone, I think ๐Ÿค”

bought แน€5 YES

Love this market idea lol

Does your fiance already know about this market? If not then them finding out and being angry could be an option lol

@TheAllMemeingEye haha fun idea. But no, my partner does know about it. :)

I assure you, this will happen somewhere on Earth during the festivities.

@Quroe -_-

@Quroe I edited it. Thanks for the pedantry. :P

@Fion ยฏ\_(ใƒ„)_/ยฏ

I added this! I assume this would not be as bad as "Somebody punches somebody else (hard)" if both happen, yeah?

@Quroe correct :)

opened a แน€5 YES at 10% order

Ok, I've finished initialising probabilities and I've put some sell orders at what I think are generous probabilities. Feel free to fill my orders. Closer to the time, if my positions haven't been eliminated, I might sell. Otherwise, I won't bet from now on.