Inspired by this post, linked to by ACX: https://open.substack.com/pub/donotpanic/p/mass-disabling-event-denial?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=f99j5
Resolves to my best interpretation of expert consensus in March 2030. I will be receptive to commenters making the case for a particular consensus. I will try very hard to resolve YES or NO, but if there really doesn't seem to be a consensus, I will resolve PROB to 50%. These criteria may be tweaked in the first month if commenters have feedback.
I will not bet in this market.
1,000Maybe. Market doesn't resolve early, though. I'll wait until close date and try and ascertain consensus at that time.
Yes, but cases don't appear to be growing. ONS UK reports "any symptoms > 12 weeks" at 1.9% this March, and it was 1.77% last year February
Yes to mass disabling event, but the author of that blog sees it as a means to push a political narrative, so take what's written there with a pinch of salt