UK General Election: Which party will win in Boston and Skegness?
Mini
20
1.6k
resolved Jul 5
100%53%
Reform
14%
Labour
32%
Conservatives
0.7%Other

This refers to the next general election to take place electing representatives to the UK parliament.

Please submit answers in the form of a political party, not an individual. If you wish to submit an individual who will run as an independent, please submit your answer in the form: "Independent: [person's name]". If anybody submits "Independent" as an answer, it will not resolve YES, even if an independent wins.

"Labour" and "Labour and Co-operative" will be treated interchangeably.

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I'm planning to make 650 of these, one for each of the parliamentary constituencies. If you wish to support this (rather expensive) endeavour, you can either make some trades so I get trader bonuses, or you can start making your own. Please tag me in the comments if you do so I know not to duplicate your markets. For an up to date list of which constituencies I've created markets for, see the description here: https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-we-create-a-market-for-every-s?r=Rmlvbg

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They haven't announced the Conversative candidate for this seat yet?
I hope the options get updated once the official candidate list gets published on 7 June 2024

Edit: misunderstood the question

@GooGhoul I've no plans to update the existing listed parties to reflect candidate names on my markets because, TBH, it's too big a job to do across all the constituency markets I'm running.

There's also no plans to add every candidate to each market because it costs mana, and there's no point listing Bob Smith Independent if he's going to take home 20 votes, because it costs 250 mana to add the answer which is then immediately donated to whoever buys NO down to 1%. If you want to do that then feel free, all these markets have the ability for anyone to add an answer.

In a couple of weeks I might skim the highest-% Other constituencies and add likely candidates, but only if they have a decent chance of winning.

@Noit Okay that makes sense, I found it odd that the simulation at: HTTP s://manifold-uk-election-2024.netlify.app/ had so many Others down to win

And nvm me on the conservative not running, looks like the incumbent will be running again, odd there's no official announcement about it though

@GooGhoul They’ve got another week or so to get the final contestants in, so things could be in flux until then.

Reform leader Richard Tice is standing here.

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1793588681686884576