This market resolves to yes if the Ukrainian army makes a clear large scale counter offensive attack against Russia to reclaim their land before the end of June 2023.
Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before July 1st. Not if there are some probing attacks that may become larger afterwards.
As the resolution is subjective, I will not bet in it.
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Fighting has happened in recent days across large different parts of the front. There's been the destruction of the dam, possibly to stop Ukranian advances.
The Institute for the Study of War has called the counteroffensive as begun, though stating none of the single operations is the counteroffensive, it's a thing that unfolds over time.
Ukrainian command has told everyone to STFU.
Lots of news outlets have reported on upticks in fighting, dubbing the counteroffensive as having begun.
That looks like a counteroffensive, swims like a counteroffensive and quacks like a counteroffensive, so it's enough that, that I intend to resolve this market as YES in a few hours. Unless someone convinces me otherwise.
Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
@Fedor I think 'at least three sectors of the front' qualifies as large scale and is enough for a YES resolution.
Sorry if this is a little derivative
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-the-will-ukraine-launch-a-larg?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
I'm looking for some clarification on a few things, @Fedor. what would you consider to be large scale? is there a certain number? any examples so i know what to look for?
In the sentence: Will resolve yes if the counter-offense is clear and obvious before July 1st.
'clear and obvious' what is that exactly? i know zelenskiy had said that, but what does that mean in this market? please, give me clear and obvious examples of what 'clear and obvious' means to you. Also, what sources are you accepting? this is so im not wasting time adding sources that aren't going to be considered. And what sources are you blacklisting? is it just all russian sources?
So it's clear what i'm asking, i'll put the questions below. thanks,
1. Quantify and give examples of what 'large-scale' means
Define and give examples of what 'clear and obvious' means
What sources are you accepting?
What sources are you not accepting?
@higherLEVELING Would accept any reputable newspapers (like the well selling ones, not a small local one), if the Institute for Study of War keeps saying the counteroffensive has begun, and don't retract that, that would also count.
Large scale means it's not a one off attack on a small area, but say across multiple areas. Clear and obvious are if there's a media blackout, and then everyone is saying it has begun.
Like Reuters, CNN politics, the Economist are all good sources.
This market is very much looking like it'll go to yes with all the buss around a counteroffensive the past few days.
"When we start the counter-offensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it," Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told Reuters.
From my reading of the resolution criteria this is what we are currently waiting for. My guess is it will take a few more days.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/24ZAQGJ2PRNJBPF5DTCKDAH2WM.jpg)
@AlexbGoode when zelenskiy said clear and obvious, I was drawing a blank. But I think he must have meant this: Ukraine’s Unique Terminator Fighting Vehicle Has Arrived At The Front (forbes.com)
@AlexbGoode My read on what they're trying to do with the messaging is that they'd call it the "real" counteroffensive once they have significant success somewhere and commit large forces there to exploit the breakthrough. Because if you say you've started it and the Russian defensive lines hold for a few days or a week, then everyone will start talking about failure.
There's also the possibility that the defence just pretty much holds and the counteroffensive fails outright and I'm not sure how they'll frame it then. I'm glad ISW is considered a good source here because they will figure it out.
@NamesAreHard ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Your assessment sounds very reasonable. from that perspective it does seem to make sense.
@higherLEVELING Still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is tempering expectations. He told The Wall Street Journal last week that he believed the counteroffensive will be successful but was not sure how long it will take, especially without advanced western fighter jets. Ukraine will soon begin training on F-16s and other fourth generation fighter aircraft in Europe, but it could be months before the aircraft is in country.
@PeterBuyukliev The question is when it will begin, though, not when or whether it will be successful. I sold all my NO shares here yesterday because I'd consider it to have already started for the purposes of this market but there is still some ambiguity in what is considered large scale.
@NamesAreHard I am staying out of this market because, in its current state, it isn't clear what would constitute a large-scale offensive.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/05/ukraines-counter-offensive-appears-to-have-begun
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2023/06/06/ukraines-counter-offensive-has-begun-and-its-not-what-the-west-expected
250 killed
1. Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive - BBC News
2. Ukraine: Russia says it thwarted attack in Donetsk | CTV News
3. Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow claims to have repelled ‘major’ attack in Donetsk; Belgorod energy facility on fire (theguardian.com)
4. Russia says it thwarted major Ukrainian offensive, killed hundreds (msn.com)
5. Russia claims to have thwarted ‘large-scale’ Ukraine attack | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
6. 🔴 Live: Russian government says it thwarted 'major Ukrainian attack' (france24.com)
7. (1) ISW on Twitter: "Southern #Ukraine: Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western #Donetsk Oblast and eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4. https://t.co/6B3fP29uwG https://t.co/w1P3vocO0U" / Twitter
8. Russia claims to have thwarted 'major Ukrainian offensive' in Donetsk killing 250 of Kyiv's troops | Daily Mail Online
9. Ukraine war: Russia claims it stopped 'large scale' Ukrainian military offensive | Euronews
@Fedor it's a bunch of "Russia claims". Russia might claim an attack by 3 guys is a thwarted massive offensive for propaganda reasons.
@AlQuinn Yes, but last night the Institute for the Study of War claimed the counteroffensive has begun. And a dam has just been blown. So that is really, really starting to look like a something.
@Fedor yeah if ISW clearly states a large counteroffensive has begun, that would be good evidence, rather than lazy hot-take msm articles quoting rando Russian officials. ISW is also somewhat biased but they are conservative on what they report is happening on the ground.