Will martial law be declared in South Korea at any point in 2025?

Background South Korea briefly experienced martial law on December 3, 2024, when President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency measures citing threats from "North Korean communist forces" and "anti-state forces." However, the National Assembly voted to lift the martial law within six hours, exercising their constitutional authority to override such declarations.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if martial law is declared by the South Korean government at any point during the calendar year 2025 (Korean Standard Time). The declaration must be officially announced by the South Korean government or president. The duration of the martial law is irrelevant for resolution - even a brief declaration that is quickly overturned (as happened in December 2024) would result in a YES resolution.

Considerations

• The South Korean Constitution allows the National Assembly to lift martial law through a majority vote, as demonstrated in December 2024

• The threshold for declaring martial law in South Korea typically requires a significant threat to national security or public order

• Recent tensions with North Korea and domestic political dynamics could influence the likelihood of such a declaration