Sri Mulyani is widely regarded as a stabilizing force for Indonesia's economy and investor confidence. This market predicts the stock market reaction IF she leaves her position as Minister of Finance.
This market resolves YES if:
The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (IDX Composite/IHSG) drops by more than 5% within 7 calendar days following Sri Mulyani's official departure announcement
This market resolves NO if:
Sri Mulyani announces her departure but the IDX Composite does not drop by more than 5% within 7 days
The market resolves N/A if:
Sri Mulyani remains as Minister of Finance through September 1, 2025 (meaning the conditional never triggers)
The percentage change will be calculated using the closing price on the day of the announcement (or the next trading day if announced after market hours) compared to the lowest closing price within the 7-day period.
References:
1,000If we're thinking about the base rates, then since 1997-01-01, ~5% of the time we have >5% weekly drop in ^JKSE price.
And since 2019-01-01, 2% of the time.
And it's getting more frequent in 2025,
Dates of 5%+ weekly drops:
2019-05-17 - -6.16%
2020-02-27 - -6.85%
2020-02-28 - -7.30%
2020-03-02 - -7.68%
2020-03-10 - -5.40%
2020-03-11 - -8.78%
2020-03-12 - -13.17%
2020-03-13 - -10.75%
2020-03-16 - -8.69%
2020-03-17 - -14.64%
2020-03-18 - -15.98%
2020-03-19 - -16.14%
2020-03-20 - -14.52%
2020-03-23 - -14.95%
2020-03-24 - -11.65%
2020-06-15 - -5.01%
2020-09-10 - -7.37%
2021-01-28 - -6.77%
2021-01-29 - -7.05%
2022-05-10 - -5.49%
2022-05-11 - -5.75%
2022-05-12 - -8.29%
2022-05-13 - -8.73%
2022-07-04 - -5.37%
2024-12-19 - -5.64%
2025-02-07 - -5.16%
2025-02-10 - -5.43%
2025-02-11 - -7.65%
2025-02-12 - -5.39%Another useful info to gather is to find similar cases of widely-trusted ministers of finance being sacked/resigning in other countries and see how the market responded to their ousting.