In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?
5
110Ṁ47resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More precisely, will ≥3/5 of full-time members of technical staff of Redwood Research (on 08/01/2023) think on the 12/31/2024 it would have been better if they had left before the 12/31/2023.
Starting the process of leaving before the end of 2023 also counts (even if it would have been better to technically leave slightly after the end of 2023). It also counts if people leave in that time interval. “Better” means better for the world according to them. Each person answer for their own departure.
Resolves to NA if not enough people answer this question to settle the bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ11 | |
2 | Ṁ5 | |
3 | Ṁ4 | |
4 | Ṁ3 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
73% chance
By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?
83% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?
53% chance
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
70% chance
Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
49% chance
Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024?
45% chance
Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?
50% chance
Will people who graduate around 2028 regret about starting a degree around 2023? Consider AI development.
35% chance
In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?
40% chance