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South Sudan has a history of political instability, with multiple coups and attempted coups since its independence in 2011. BMI analysts think South Sudan is the most likely country in Africa to experience a coup, followed by the Central African Republic, according to the Economist.
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Based on the latest information and current geopolitical dynamics, predicting the likelihood of a successful coup in South Sudan in 2024 involves analyzing various factors such as the political climate, societal unrest, and regional influences. The country is preparing for its first presidential elections since gaining independence, scheduled for December 2024. This event is critical, given the historical rivalry between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, which has previously led to civil unrest. The upcoming elections, coupled with existing political tensions, make the political landscape particularly volatile.
Furthermore, South Sudan faces significant humanitarian challenges, with a substantial portion of its population requiring aid, and the economy is under strain from both internal and external factors, including the impact of conflicts in neighboring regions and climate-related issues such as flooding. The humanitarian and economic pressures contribute to the overall instability, which could potentially fuel discontent and unrest.
Violence against civilians and aid workers remains a serious concern, with documented incidents of violence highlighting the precarious security situation. These incidents underscore the government's struggle to maintain order and protect its citizens, which could potentially erode its legitimacy and control. The international community's scrutiny, including an arms embargo and targeted sanctions, further complicates South Sudan's ability to address its internal security needs.
Despite these challenges, there are efforts underway to adhere to the Revitalized Peace Agreement and prepare for the elections, with international support being a critical component of these preparations. The international community's role in providing support and monitoring the situation is crucial in ensuring the stability and security of South Sudan as it approaches a significant milestone in its political development.
Given the current situation and the factors at play, the odds of a successful coup in South Sudan in 2024 seem relatively low, primarily due to the international focus on supporting the electoral process and the efforts to stabilize the country. However, the inherent unpredictability of political and social dynamics, especially in a context as fragile as South Sudan's, means that the situation warrants close monitoring.
Assessed Odds
Low chance this is true: 10%
LUCA Says Confidence in odds provided
Medium confidence: 70
This assessment reflects the current understanding of South Sudan's political climate and the factors that may influence its stability in the near term. It is important to continue monitoring the situation for any developments that may affect this outlook.