Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of South Sudan?

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South Sudan has a history of political instability, with multiple attempted coups since its independence in 2011. BMI analysts think South Sudan is the most likely country in Africa to experience a successful coup, followed by the Central African Republic, according to the Economist.

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South Sudan has a history of political instability, with multiple coups and attempted coups since its independence in 2011.

This sounds weird. If you're distinguishing (successful) coups from attempted coups, there have been no coups at all – President Salva Kiir Mayardit has been in power since well before independence, and there hasn't been an election or a proper institutionality that he could break by means of a self-coup.

@BrunoParga Thanks for the call out. Description has been updated for clarity.

@FUTURESEARCH my pleasure, thanks for the update!

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 24%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 24%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 30%, market is 23%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 25%, market is 23%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 15%, market is 28%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 28%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 28%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 28%, market is 27%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 27%.

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