This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution will come from Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy. ~11% of global consumption of energy is from renewables.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,004 | |
| 2 | Ṁ765 | |
| 3 | Ṁ760 | |
| 4 | Ṁ311 | |
| 5 | Ṁ238 |
People are also trading
Coming back very late to this, resolved as No. The main chart there gives 9868 TWh in 2024, up from 9006 in 2023, which is a ~9.5% increase.
This is generation, not consumption, but given this page was the source given, and that generation is similar to consumption, this is good enough.
Apologies for the extremely delayed resolution here, I thought these were all resolved months ago, and only coming back to this now for data analysis did I notice.
@FUTURESEARCH can you clarify what the resolution source will be PRECISELY? The ourworldindata site you linked:
1) Doesn't provide the total amount of renewable energy consumption as an absolute value, just a share of total energy consumption. (this is important)
2) Hasn't even updated to 2023 yet and likely won't update 2024's numbers until late 2025.
3) It's not clear whether you mean increase by 10% as in "increase from 500 megajoules to at least 550 megajoules", or increase by 10% as in, "increase from 11% of global consumption to 21% of global consumption".
Also important to note is that renewable energy CONSUMPTION is very different than renewable energy GENERATION (for which more concrete data is given at the link you provided).