This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
India's Aadhaar system is a cornerstone of its digital public infrastructure. India's plans to export this technology to other countries are part of its strategy to enhance its influence and demonstrate its digital capabilities. A bilateral agreement would be a significant step in this direction. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/india-has-big-plans-to-export-its-e-government-technology
Related questions
The question, if interpreted as phrased and described, is likely to resolve to No.
This is because the general template behind the Aadhaar Stack is already being shared via a non-governmental channel. (See: MOSIP https://mosip.io/#1, https://medium.com/@identitywoman-in-business/mosip-the-unneglectable-force-in-the-global-south-a7866535b46e#:~:text=According%20to%20MOSIP%2C%2011%20countries,in%20various%20stages%20of%20adoption. )
The demand for Aadhaar-like digital identity stack is currently being served by a non-governmental organization, and promoted by international philanthropy (like BMGF) or international bodies (like https://www.dpgcharter.org/ ).
This implies that a bilateral agreement with the Indian state is basically unnecessary for any country to acquire an Aadhaar-like stack. And so if the question is interpreted as asking "Whether the Indian state will sign a deal with an African state for knowledge transfer related to Aadhar-like system", then the answer should very likely resolve to No, and the current market estimation at 57% is way too high.
Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 58%.