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Japan has been the top exporter by volume. In 2022, Germany was the world’s leading car exporter by dollar value, with $155.1 billion worth of cars exported, representing 20% of the global total. Japan was second with $87.2 billion (11.2%), followed by the USA, South Korea, Mexico, and China. China was the fastest-growing among the top exporters, with car exports up 83.2% from 2021.
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Based on the latest information gathered, it is evident that China has already taken significant strides towards becoming the world's leading exporter of cars. According to reports, China is estimated to have overtaken Japan as the world's largest auto exporter in 2023, with the China Passenger Car Association noting that exports of cars jumped 62% to a record 3.83 million vehicles. Moreover, UBS has forecasted that Chinese carmakers are expected to sell 5 million vehicles overseas in 2024, with battery-powered vehicles accounting for 30% of China's total car exports, effectively solidifying China's position as the world's No. 1 exporter.
The growth in China's car exports is underpinned by both supply and demand factors. On the supply side, Chinese automakers' factories have excess capacity, which provides them with the capability to ramp up production for exports. On the demand side, Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining traction in international markets due to their cost advantages and technological advancements. For instance, Chinese EVs, including those produced by BYD, have been able to keep costs relatively low thanks to the country's highly developed EV supply chain, making a vehicle for around €10,000 less than a European rival.
Despite the potential challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade investigations by other regions into Chinese-made EVs, the strategic shift by Chinese car manufacturers towards expanding their international presence indicates a strong momentum that could sustain their growth in global car exports.
90%: High chance this is true
85: High confidence