🏅 Top traders

Didn't you say you were going to split the difference if there were multiple terms used?

@MichaelWheatley That was never bet and so was never replaced

@ian oh, I didn't realize that.

Resolving to Predict as per the resolution criteria.

@FRCassarino I think this is improper. They replaced "bets" with "predictions" only yesterday!

I mean, they replaced "bets" with "trades" a while ago, and then replaced "trades" with "predictions" yesterday.

@Yev That's not the case - https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commit/3932a3dbd480ccce42d60457f4e44b407dba74c4 this shipped out 8 days ago.

@FRCassarino Yes, they replaced that instance of "trade" with "predict" 8 days ago. But they replaced another instance of "trades" with "predictions" yesterday.

@Yev Is this the relevant commit? https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/commit/e9f136a653b6fc6a17a76ebbdad3d9a4e0ea4fb0

Tbh I think the resolution criteria was underspecified, but ultimately I think it was okay to resolve it.

"Bet" was changed to "Predict" 8 days ago in the contract details page, I that alone should satisfy the criteria. That even more instances of "Bet/Trades" were changed to "Predict" yesterday doesn't undo that IMO. I didn't specify whether "Bet" had to be exhaustively changed into "Predict" in every single instance in the website - I should've specified that it wasn't necessary.

@FRCassarino I agree, the most prominent ‘bet’ instances were replaced with predict. The latest commit was just cleaning up loose ends

@FRCassarino I interpreted the question as closing when there are no significant changes to terminology for a week. But I agree that your reading is also valid, and you resolved honorably.

Fwiw I genuinely have felt better about linking random people to manifold with the new Predict language.

@SneakySly Same here!

The last significant update was this commit from Sep 15 which changed a bunch of "trades" to "predictions".

You can "bet" or "trade" on whether COVID was a lab leak or on how many civilians died in the siege of Mariupol, but you can't "predict" it.

@FRCassarino "Guess" has the advantage of being the least intimidating, it implies that anyone is qualified to place a bet.

Might be good for places like the off-site embeds.

@ian Great points! This is why I like "Predict"

@ian yeah, I no longer think "Buy" is better than "Bet". Bet is still the best of all these options.

@FRCassarino too many syllables and letters for the little button at the top right of a market. "Bet" gets across the same thing, but in that monosyllabic Old English style rather than the overly flowery Latin-derived style.

@ian Very good points, I pretty much agree. And damn! we should focus on that market conversion rate!

@SG Agreed, I don't like "Weigh in" at all, sounds super vague.

@MattP Buy just isn't how a new user would think to register their opinion, though. You have to imagine a new user comes to the site, sees a question they know the answer to, and if they want to voice their opinion why would they hit a buy button? What are they buying? I would extend them something more familiar and educate them when the modal opens.

@SG Our market conversion rate is less than 1% - I think we need to try something new

@SG 'Trade' makes zero sense to new users who land on the site. If I've an opinion on a question why on earth would I hit a button that says 'trade'? I might: register my opinion, weigh in, contribute my $.02, but I wouldn't 'trade' in a question.