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MANIFOLD
[100USD PRIZE POOL] Who will win the Men's World Surf League G-Land event?
9
Ṁ560Ṁ288
resolved Jun 4
100%3%
Jack Robinson
7%Other
22%
John John Florence
11%
Filipe Toledo
1.6%
Kelly Slater
6%
Griffin Colapinto
50%
Gabriel Medina
The World Surf League is holding the 2022 "Quiksilver/Roxy Pro G-Land" on May 28-June 6. This question will resolve to whoever the winner of the Men's event is. I'm putting up a 100USD (real dollars) prize-pool for this market. Those 100USD will be distributed to the Top 5 bettors by profit, at the time of resolution. They will be distributed proportionally to their profit. Example: If Alice profits M$500, Bob profits M$300, Charlie profits M$100, Dan profits M$50 and Erin profits M$50. Then Alice will receive 50USD, Bob 30USD, Charlie 10USD, Dan 5USD, Erin 5USD. --- To get their money, the winners have a few options: 1 - Send me their bank details 2 - Send me a crypto wallet address 3 - Ask me to donate them to their preferred charity. Winners can contact me at federicoruizcassarino@gmail.com. If anybody wants to add more money to the Prize Pool, contact me at that email as well. I RESERVE THE RIGHTS TO NOT SEND MONEY TO A PARTICULAR WINNER IF I BELIEVE THEY'VE ABUSED/GAMED THE MARKET. If that happens the money will be distributed among the remaining winners. --- Why am I doing this? It's an experiment. I'm interested in Manifold being able to produce "Forecasts as a Service". I think there’s people willing to pay for accurate forecasts to their questions. But Manifold doesn't solve for this. The questions which are most relevant to the userbase get a lot of betting volume, but questions that the userbase doesn't find interesting get barely any betting volume. I think most questions that somebody would be willing to pay for fit among the latter category, and think catering to them would be a great opportunity for growth & monetization. More on the idea here: https://sordid-nerve-4cb.notion.site/Proposal-Prize-pools-for-markets-402d37e613ab41fe947edf4d12cfe7ab I purposefully picked a question that I don't think is relevant to our userbase, and that I expect would normally get very few bets. The purpose of the experiment is to test how well real money prize-pools incentivize people to bet on a market. The purpose is NOT to test out whether this mechanism for prize-pools incentivizes prediction accuracy, so I will not pay anyone who I believe found a way to game/abuse the system without attempting to predict as accurately as possible. Close date updated to 2022-06-06 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-06-07 11:59 pm
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Paid out the prize pool to both winners 😁
@FRCassarino can confirm for any interested
Jack Robinson won the event. The experiment was a bit of a failure as the market failed to get traction. Jonathan and Stephen are the only people with profit. Jonathan wins 79.4 dollars, Stephen 20.6 dollars. Please email me at federicoruizcassarino@gmail.com with details for a bank transfer/bitcoin wallet, or let me know a charity of your choice in the comment to make a donation to your name.
based on the info Austin linked, John John feels like a runaway favorite, to me; he ranked #2 in the CT but his average heat score is much higher than Filipe Toledo's.
I know nothing about pro surf, but love the experimental design of this question, so I just went to https://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes and found the American ones (go team USA!!) Consider posting this on a surf-adjacent forum (r/surfing?), I think they'd love this setup!
@Austin I sort of wanna see if just having the prize-pool gets people to bet (even if they're not interested in it!), without promoting the question. It's not working so far haha, but I'll give it some more time.
Yeah my feeling is that most Manifold users use the "New" or "24h volume" sort, so if a question doesn't get much attention in the first day then it'll quietly sink to the bottom haha. Not unlike Tweets/Reddit posts in this regard.
Some other terms: - If there's duplicate categories (i.e the same surfers shows up twice in the answers), the market will resolve to the one added first. - If for some reason the market doesn't have a clear resolution or winner, I will donate the 100USD to GiveWell instead. - Any fees that come from transferring the money to a winner will be paid of of their winnings. Ex: If Alice wins 50USD but the bank transaction has a 1USD fee, she'll receive 49USD. - I reserve the right to add any other terms that I find reasonable.