How many Democrats win House seats in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina? Independents count based on which party they caucus with.
38 total seats. Model as of question creation: mean 11.8, 10-14 covers 94%.
1,000Historical context — Democratic U.S. House seats won across these 5 states by election. The AL/GA/LA/MS/SC columns are that state'''s own Democratic seats; D and R are the 5-state totals.
Year | Seats | AL GA LA MS SC | D | R
2002 | 37 | 2 5 3 2 2 | 14 | 23
2004 | 37 | 2 6 2 2 2 | 14 | 23
2006 | 37 | 2 6 2 2 2 | 14 | 23
2008 | 37 | 3 6 1 3 2 | 15 | 22
2010 | 37 | 1 5 1 1 1 | 9 | 28
2012 | 38 | 1 5 1 1 1 | 9 | 29
2014 | 38 | 1 4 1 1 1 | 8 | 30
2016 | 38 | 1 4 1 1 1 | 8 | 30
2018 | 38 | 1 5 1 1 2 | 10 | 28
2020 | 38 | 1 6 1 1 1 | 10 | 28
2022 | 38 | 1 5 1 1 1 | 9 | 29
2024 | 38 | 2 5 2 1 1 | 11 | 27
No independents have held any of these seats in the past two decades — all D or R.
Seat total rose 37 → 38 after the 2010 census (GA +1, SC +1, LA −1); the current 38-seat map has been in place since 2012.
2008 (15) was the ceiling of a bygone era — Obama-wave Democrats held marginal white-majority seats (AL-02/05, MS-01/04, LA-03, GA-8/12) that all fell in the 2010 wave and never returned. Post-2010 the range is just 8–11.
Georgia drives the variance. From 2010–2022, AL/LA/MS/SC sat at exactly 1 D each — their lone majority-Black district (Sewell, Richmond→Carter, Thompson, Clyburn). Georgia'''s 4–6 Atlanta-area seats supplied all the movement.
2024'''s jump to 11 leans on two brand-new VRA seats — AL-02 (Figures) and LA-06 (Fields), from court-ordered majority-Black redistricting. The Louisiana map is still before the Supreme Court (Louisiana v. Callais), so whether ≥11 holds partly depends on those seats surviving to 2026.