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MANIFOLD
Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ200
2028
20%
chance

Not simply export controls, as happened with Fable. That order allowed the model to be run, just restricted access (even though in practice partial / limited access wasn't a viable option).

This might be law, court order, or executive order. It might be permanent or temporary ("halt training until your sandbox passes an audit").

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