Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
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1kṀ22k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Tests, demonstrations, and offensive use included.

UTC time zone.

Global Macro
Nuclear Risk
North Korea
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https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-test-icbm-ukraine-russia-a39a36f4ff000037f96116fd6f5633fb

South Korean military says North Korea appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests
South Korea’s military intelligence agency says North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and appears to be preparing to test a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.
bought Ṁ15 NO

This is clearly in tension with this market.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-conducts-test-underwater-nuclear-weapons-system-kcna-2024-01-19/

MercurialGuesser boughtṀ50NO

@UnconditionalProbability That seems to only be the testing of the underwater systems, not an underwater detonation in its own right.

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