Will Manifold reduce the capital requirements for multiple No positions in multiple choice markets by July 2024?
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Jul 2
59%
chance

On binary markets, Yes and No are financially equivalent. However, on multiple choice markets, the symmetry is broken: holding No positions on multiple outcomes requires paying full price for all the shares, despite it being impossible to lose all the money spent on those shares (at most one of them can resolve Yes).

For any combination of shares that you hold in a single-outcome multiple-choice market, there exists a combination of only Yes shares (and possibly also some uninvested Mana), with 0 shares held in at least on option, that has an equivalent payout. (This framing is equivalent to the above framing.)

Sometimes it's more convenient to think about options in terms of one being No rather than multiples maybe being Yes; this is a human problem, not a math problem. However, Manifold does not let you buy Yes shares across multiple options as an atomic operation, and does not allow limit orders that cover multiple options. So placing a No limit order on one option is not an action that can be replicated with only Yes orders at this time.

Will Manifold address these problems by close date?

Examples that would count:

  • Purchasing No shares when you already have No shares in a different option refunds an appropriate amount to your balance rather than debiting it.

  • There is a way (manual or automatic) to convert all your shares in a market into only Yes shares.

  • The backend accounting changes to only include Yes shares on each option, with No being a UI layer on top that represents Yes shares in all other options.

The fix would need to be available both to web users and API users.

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predicts YES

A related mode might be useful for decision markets with fixed N/A rules:
/SG/will-manifoldlove-hit-1000-signed-i

Exactly one of the 3 "prioritize" options will resolve, the other 2 will be NA. So if you hold positions on all three, you maximum loss is the size of your largest position, not the sum of your positions. There is no need to require full backing for all three positions.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I am specifically asking about the capital requirements while holding the positions. Allowing some options to resolve No early while leaving the remainder of the question open is a good idea, important, and reduces the long-term requirements for some markets in expectation; but it isn't quite what this market is talking about and would not cause it to resolve Yes.

How do I incentivize Manifold to fix this? Do I bet No so that Manifold devs can pick up the free yes with their insider knowledge? Or do I bet Yes so that they feel awkward.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@wilsonkime I don't actually know!

Perhaps bet on yes, but leave a large standing limit on No at 90+%?

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