To date, 4 Nobel Prizes in Physics have been awarded for work in superconductivity: 1972, 1973, 1987. 2003. Will another Nobel Prize award be for work on superconductors before 2034?
(While this would likely be in Physics, that is not required.)
1,000
3.00My take on the base rate: time-invariant Laplace suggests about 52% in the business-as-usual / ignorance-prior case, if you start counting at the first superconductor Nobel. Or about 33% if you start counting from the first Nobel prize to 35% if you count from the discovery of superconductivity.
@EvanDaniel If you want a semi-insider's take on the expert consensus, a lot of us inorganic chemists of various stripes have a vague feeling that some kind of superconduction breakthrough is close-ish, though it's tough to say if it gets awarded by 2034 even if it happens. An actual ambient superconductor would probably win a Nobel immediately, of course.