Mutuals: both the Manifold user and the other account follow each other. We're looking for the highest follower count on the non-manifold-user account. Put the Manifold user account in the answer, reply in comments with the X / Twitter account that they're mutuals with. The Twitter account should be a regular user, not a brand account.
The Manifold user must be active, defined as betting, commenting, and/or creating, resolving, or updating a question, while this market is open.
If it's not clear I might ask for evidence that the Manifold and Twitter account are in fact the same person.
Follower counts and mutuals as of market close time or whenever after close time I check; I'll try to resolve promptly.
By default I'm going to assume that follower counts are basically accurate as displayed and that everyone has about the same portion of fake bot followers. Manipulated follower counts don't count, especially if they were manipulated in an attempt to resolve this question; post evidence if you want to disqualify some account. (That would violate X's ToS and therefore also Manifold's, AIUI.)
Trying to acquire new mutuals is an entirely acceptable way to manipulate this market.
Hopefully this ends up pretty objective and easy to judge, but regardless I will not bet in this market.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน111 | |
| 2 | แน103 | |
| 3 | แน91 | |
| 4 | แน74 | |
| 5 | แน53 |
People are also trading
@traders Does anyone have any evidence that the resolution is something other than @SirCryptomind ?
@Joshua I suppose the followup question is, should we re-run this question? What timeframe? Should we exclude @SirCryptomind , Spears, or both?
@shankypanky Sorry, I was just slow! No fancy plans. I'd been intending to actually check all the numbers but didn't find an easy way to do it, so I wanted to give people a chance to raise objections / offer evidence after market close. And then I just forgot to come back and resolve it as early as I meant to.
@EvanDaniel got it! I hedged a little toward Yud trolling on this one, but at this point I've learned that a lack of market manipulation from him is the real manipulation ๐
@SemioticRivalry Yea, I believe that is what Evan and I agreed on when we came up with the market.
If it got more engagement, maybe I could convince him to extend it.
Why do you ask? Can you beat me?
Yudkowsky would just need to follow Elon Musk back to win this. It seems plausible he might do that temporarily purely to win this market, if volume picks up.
He just bet again so adding in case I missed something but I'm pretty sure his highest mutual is Mr. Beast with 25 million... which means Crypto is still winning lol
@DylanMatthews commented 15 minutes ago and is followed by Obama! But they're only following 1 person who is, notably, not Barack Obama.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?