This will resolve exactly based on /Gabrielle/which-states-will-be-won-by-the-dem-540e6b923486 . Individual answers will resolve as they are able to.

Note that there are 56 options in the underlying market, not 50. Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes, so there are three entries for Maine and four for Nebraska in the underlying, and they will all be counted separately for purposes of this market.

Flip is defined as voting differently than it did in the 2020 result. D ->R, R -> D, and also R -> I and D -> I count as flips. (I have not yet picked an underlying market for the question of independent results; I will update this description when I do. The intent is to have this be a fully derivative market long before the election rolls around.)

I haven't added the full set of possible counts. I'll add more if they look interesting, feel free to do so as well if I haven't gotten to it. Please follow the existing format. Please don't add higher numbers unless the highest existing bracket is trading meaningfully away from zero.

Inspired by /PlasmaBallin/how-many-states-will-flip-in-the-20 . Now with new unlinked MC buckets structure.