World leader means the/a main head leader of a sovereign country recognised by the UN. E.g a president or prime minister NOT just a parliament member. For countries with more then one president such as Bosnia and Herzegovina it can be any of their 3 presidents.
The world leader must be proved to have been killed (assassinated) and not just have died by mysterious or questionable circumstances.
The end time for this to occur is the 31st of December 2024 at 23:59.
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@Ethoin Prior:
2 WLs assassinated in office in the past 10 years. October, <25% of the year remaining. Assuming Poisson assassinations, P(x > 0) = 1 - e^(-0.2 * 0.25) ≈ 0.05
To get up to 30% you’d need some information to suggest that rate increases by a factor of 7, that some leader in particular has a 25% chance of getting assassinated, or somewhere in between.
What’s your thesis?
@XTXinverseXTY if I were standing twenty feet away from a president with a samurai sword and murderous intent, I wouldn’t even give myself a 25% chance of succeeding!
@XTXinverseXTY good point but with the rising tensions (especially how it looked in september following the trump attempt) I think alot of people suspected there was a reasonable chance one of the ≈200 world leaders would get assassinated. I wouldn't have given it a high percentage, but im not surprised some people bet yes rising the %
@Ethoin a factor of 7 is absurd. Imagine if your auto insurance premiums jumped 7x after an accident.
Even if Trump ain't in power yet I'd say this event tips things in favour: https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2024/07/13/assassination-attempt-florida-reacts-incident-donald-trump-rally/
Zelenskyy being possibly-killed this year is trading at 0.11
https://manifold.markets/Santiago/will-volodymir-zelensky-be-killed-i?r=WFRYaW52ZXJzZVhUWQ