T Coronae Borealis reaches magnitude 5.0 before November 11th, 2026?
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Coronae Borealis (T CrB), also known as the 'Blaze Star,' is a recurrent nova expected to undergo an outburst "soon". Historically, it has brightened to magnitude 2.0 or 3.0 during such events in 1866 and 1946 respectively.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if T CrB reaches magnitude 5.0 or brighter before November 11th, 2026 (12:00:00 am ET), as reported by reputable astronomical sources such as the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market was ~19% when I bet; I've got it around 3%. T CrB still hasn't erupted, and with only 18 days left, even a generous yearly chance of it going off leaves a couple of percent. If it did blow, it would be front-page news within hours. https://starwalk.space/ay/en/tcrb
