This question is about the legislation impacting consumers before the end of 2025 (for the majority of Americans).
If TikTok is banned for the majority of Americans before the end of 2025 and some people were still accessing TikTok illegally in the US after the ban came into place then the market would resolve YES
If a bill is signed into law but is not yet impacting consumers (i.e. because it is held up in court) that would not count towards a YES because the ban would not yet be impacting consumers
If TikTok is banned in a way that impacted the majority of Americans before the end of 2025, for at least 7 consecutive days, then the market would resolve as a YES (even if TikTok was later re-instated)
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It's still banned. App Stores refuse to host it because of the fines which are still in effect, even if Trump has promised not to enforce. An unenforced ban is still a ban. Them bringing servers back does not really matter and was mainly a stunt anyway since shutting down servers was never a requirement, just banning the app. As the ban has been in effect for over seven days now, this market should resolve to yes.
@Mana agree. Any counter arguments? In the spectrum of not banned to banned, seems like current status falls in banned.
Confirmation question: is the status still: new users can't install but it works for existing ones?
@Ernie Yes, works for current users but if you delete it or try to install it for the first time you can't. Of course anyone can still use it by going to the site, or installing the APK on Android or the IPA if on a jailbroken iOS device. But this is irrelevant to the ban; as long as the law banning the app from being on stores is in effect, which it is, and has been for over seven days, this market should go yes.