Will the S&P 500 increase in at least 3 of the 4 quarters of 2026?

Question

We measure S&P changes from the interval's first day's prior day closing price to the last day's closing price.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 57% chance (16 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).

People are also trading