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Market will remain open until we know clearly how many were delivered.
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@Ernie Resolve please
Per comments below, Troy Teslike with ~3% errors (less on production) is estimating 3443+10913
And if you want something from Tesla there is the recall number of 11688.
I don't see any reason not to resolve this yes now.
Troy Teslike estimates Q2 Cybertruck deliveries were around 11k
https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1808129759857054031
(plus about 3400 in Q1), so over 14k in H1, almost 3x of the 5k threshold.
What more do we need to resolve this as YES?
The official number for "Other modes" (S, X, and Cybertruck, and perhaps some Semi, less than 100) is 21551. While it's not completely impossible for S/X to be over 19k, it's extremely unlikely. I would say based on the last 3 quarters it's 17k at best (Troy Teslike estimates ~10800 of S/X deliveries).
21551 - 17000 = 4551 Cybertruck deliveries at least (likely over 10k in fact). Plus at least 2500 in Q1 is, at least ~7000 in H2 (likely double that).
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2024
Here is Troy's estimate corrected to match the official numbers. Interestingly he chose to update the S/X sales so the Cybertruck estimate remains the same. (The error in the "Other Models" estimate was very small anyway.)
https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1808569519033438717
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-finally-know-how-many-cybertrucks-tesla-has-sold-so-far-163314428.html
Tesla also revealed the number of vehicles affected by the recall โ 11,688 trucks โ which would equate to the number of Cybertrucks sold since it includes vehicles in use, and in transit to customers.
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F15vhmnFS-w.png?alt=media&token=268e8ca8-4de7-4f2b-8c70-100c74f9a23e)
https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1798153321078792331
Earlier version has y axis labels
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fx6WEHq-EnL.png?alt=media&token=2258abd1-59b7-480f-b8e5-be3d703576e8)
https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1774574335828603151
@Ernie Think that should be enough to resolve this, given this is how troy teslike produced his production numbers.
https://twitter.com/robertreidmd/status/1787985399698043212
highest VIN: 10979 (05/01)
There may be some gaps, perhaps particularly prior to 800, but I would suggest not over 50% of all 10979. Also are some not delivered but unlikely to be over a weeks worth of production so perhaps ~1k ish.