Will Tesla deliver more than 5000 Cybertrucks in Q1 2024?
resolved May 4

Market will remain open until we know clearly how many were delivered.

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Any other comments?

What happens with resolution if there are strong suggestions it is lower than 5k see below but no exact data and no more information is likely to become available?

@ChristopherRandles that sounds like NO

__________ Production __ Deliveries

Model 3/Y __ 412,376 __ 369,783

Other Models 20,995 ____ 17,027


Troy Teslike production figures suggest
S/X 16400
Cybertruck 4445
Which adds to 20885 so this seems very close to 20995.

For deliveries
S/X 15019
Cybertruck 4035
This adds to 19054 which isn't as close to the 17027 but even so the error tends to suggest fewer delivered than produced.

Close to 4445 plus 270 produced in 2023 (less 12? delivered in 2023), it looks like they haven't produced 5000 and certainly not delivered them if you take a reasonably sensible view that accuracy on Cybertruck isn't likely to be much different than S/X accuracy even if not necessarily in same direction.

To be badly low on Cybertruck production and also too high on S/X is not completely ruled out but it does seem pretty unlikely on these figures and their normally high level of accuracy. They cannot have delivered cybertrucks they haven't produced.

Deliveries adjusted up a little 4245 while adjusting SX figures down a bit to match actual 17027 deliveries of S,X & Cybertruck. However that still looks well below 5k.


This is going to be hard to calculate because it will likely be lumped in with X/S