USA Gold Visa program Multimarket
0
1k
resolved Feb 26
ResolvedN/A
10%
Something like "Gold Card" or "Gold Visa" actually happens and people can apply by mid 2026
10%
At least one person actually gets a legal USA visa as a result of using this Gold Visa program by mid 2026
10%
At least 100 people have used it by mid 2026
10%
At least 1000 people have used it by mid 2028
10%
It is not or is no longer existing or being developed, as of mid 2027
10%
The all-in price for the normal process will be 4m USD or more for the first say 10 applicants.
10%
The first person to use the program will have paid 6m USD or more for it
10%
There will be someone whose entire process takes less than 6 months, who has received the visa, by mid 2027
10%
The EB-5 program will still be taking new applicants as of mid 2026, using the old investment+other requirements system
10%Other

"Have used the program"

means someone who pays the money and gets a visa at the end which allows them to enter the US. Green card equivalent, or citizenship, or residency/working visa, via the money they spend on the program. So, it's a market for citizenship with a fairly visible price, where the price is the primary means used to make transactions (rather than committees, etc.) and transactions happen quickly.

Definition of the program:

  • It has to be primarily "pay + pass screening, and you get it by default". Not some kind of "holistic application, with scholarships, bonuses, applying for financial aid to pay for it, plus money, plus tests, and/or investment, or some vector of those items" as it is now. It has to be much more like a market for visa/citizenship/right to work/passport in the US to qualify.

"Mid X year"

means end of june 30, that year, CA time.

On prices

  • If there is "normal" mode and "expedited" mode, we will use "normal mode", as long as anyone has done it.

  • Prices are all nominal, no inflation adjustment will be done

On names

  • If they change the name but it's substantially the same thing, that can still count, we just reinterpret what the claim meant by "gold visa".

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules