One of the top 15 current YES holders (see list below) completely sells out and is out of the main LK-99 market or is a NO holder in it any moment before Aug 25 Friday PST midnight.
The main market: /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
If you think this has happened, please post in comments and I'll review it. If the situation has changed by the time I check, we can still reconstruct the past holdings, and we'll go by that.
If person is banned or quits or blocks me or anyone it's irrelevant. They have to sell.
If they just transfer holdings to an alt or something it doesn't count although that would require specific proof.
If they flip to NO on this market, but have hedged it by going very YES on other, related markets, it's unfortunate, but that will still count as bailing out. That way at least it's easy to judge; trying to asses whether someone has truly changed heart, and has gone net NO from YES across all related markets would be too hard.
EDIT: If the main LK-99 market resolves NO before due date, then that is considered a failure for the YES holders, and this market would resolve YES. i.e. both situations resolve to: "YES holders give up hope"
The current top fifteen this market is about:
Catnee Ṁ626,153
Zero Big Ṁ141,359
Alexandros Marinos Ṁ78,476
Ryan Compton Ṁ75,758
Jonny5 Ṁ72,386
James Robinson Ṁ55,869
Hayden Jackson Ṁ51,170
Bob Ross Ṁ46,035
Lucas Vasconcelos Ṁ42,413
Zubair Zia Ṁ40,724
Mr. B Ṁ39,258
Manu Kumar Ṁ38,597
Julian Ibarz Ṁ37,373
Eli Winter Ṁ37,168
Sten Nygren Ṁ35,995
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ381 | |
| 2 | Ṁ212 | |
| 3 | Ṁ40 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
@StrayClimb State of play at midnight pacific time. Looks like this resolves NO
(midnight PST is actually one hour from now, but I suspect you meant PDT)
Catnee up to 834k YES
Zero Big +34k YES
Alexandros - inactive since 8/9
Ryan - inactive since 7/31
Jonny - inactive since 7/31
James - inactive since 8/2
Hayden - +47k YES
Bob - Inactive since 8/14
Lucas +16k YES
Zubair - Inactive since 7/31
Mr. B - Inactive since 8/2
Manu - Inactive since 8/1
Julian - Inactive since 7/31
Eli - Inactive since 8/5
Sten - Inactive since 8/1
So overall there are only a few active people, and they all have increased their NO position. So this really is a question of whether Catnee, Zero, Hayden or Lucas will bail in the next few days, or any of the people who probably don't even log on anymore will come back and liquidate, rather than just never think about it again.
Edit: fixed typos
YES holders seem to be digging in, or not changing position. I wonder if the pressure to sell causes further investment into that side
Today's update: a few more YES holders are going deeper, none have reduced holdings at all
Today's update: None of the top 15 have divested any YES shares, and a few have gone slightly farther YES
@cloudprism Hmm, there should be a market about this. Something like "Given the main LK-99 resolves NO, how many people are still believers?"
But how could we measure it? Maybe just an overlay like "The LK-99 researchers work will be revived within a year after X market ends?"
@cloudprism Would you bet on this? https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/the-main-lk99-market-will-have-its
Or how can we capture the actual crux here?
What about the Nobel prize markets?
@StrayClimb Eh, all I really know is that there was a growing difference between the intensity of enjoyment I saw from people claiming LK-99 isn't real and that "it's over" compared to the several months remaining ahead where we'll likely continue learning more details from places closer to the original source. If they truly admit NO and explain why then I guess I'll concede. I've already committed and doubled-down with a ton of mana (for me, anyway) on this and I'd rather not continue speculating on derivative markets through this and next year. Yes, relatively authoritative and credentialied sources are already claiming that it is debunked, but we are still far from a definitive last word. No sense realizing any losses until then.