The most common data source used on Manifold for new markets changes from Wikipedia to an LLM
7
Ṁ190Ṁ171resolved Jan 2
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i.e. rather than most claims referring to wikipedia as the expected future source of truth, it becomes more common to say an LLM or AI system will be used. The prompt to be used in the future can be pre-defined, like by definining resolution critieria directly by the answer to a specified question, or just referenced in general, that an LLM will be used as the data source.
Deadline: end of 2025
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@Ansel possibly something like taking the top 100 markets by volume or trader count created in the month before due and summing up what the point to as sources of truth?