The most common data source used on Manifold for new markets changes from Wikipedia to an LLM
Mini
7
Ṁ1712026
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
i.e. rather than most claims referring to wikipedia as the expected future source of truth, it becomes more common to say an LLM or AI system will be used. The prompt to be used in the future can be pre-defined, like by definining resolution critieria directly by the answer to a specified question, or just referenced in general, that an LLM will be used as the data source.
Deadline: end of 2025
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
@Ansel possibly something like taking the top 100 markets by volume or trader count created in the month before due and summing up what the point to as sources of truth?
Related questions
Related questions
What kinds of markets/posts will be available on Manifold on 2025-01-01?
Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024?
Will Manifold Markets be more popular than Metaculus by the end of 2024?
60% chance
Will Bloomberg launch a page containing Manifold data?
20% chance
Will a market on Manifold be used as evidence in any legal proceeding by the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by PolyMarket by end of 2030?
5% chance
Who will have created the most new markets in Manifold in 2023 - integrated across all of 2023?
Add substantial information to the Manifold Wiki!
Ṁ4,225 bounty
What are your favorite markets, historically, on Manifold?
Ṁ1,069 bounty
LLM-generated comments on Manifold Markets Stock (Permament)
Ṁ230