Someone with at least 1 million Twitter followers be actively using Manifold by mid 2024
Jun 30

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At what point in time is the 1 million count of Twit followers to be determined? There's a non-zero chance that metric will become undererminable within the year.

@ClubmasterTransparent Oh why do you say that? Visibility of this number could be removed? Or a bot account sweep?

@Ernie any number of reasons, those are good and I could come up with more. Now that it's private owned by mercurial acting person all bets are off. Elon could change all counts to 420 or 666 or 69 for lulz. Twitter could go under. Everyone's account gets suspended. All their data centers fail. Elon donates whole thing to charity. Creditors get it. New rule only blue checkmarks allowed. For starters.

If the person has 1m+ now and later becomes a manifold user, AND we have no useful follower count metric, unless there's reason to think their follower count dropped a bunch, then we might count that.

However, lots of reasons that follower counts disappear would also invalidate this market, anyway.

To your later points, in general all markets about specific companies have those potential risks. We find a way to deal with it. i.e. the company "twitter" doesn't even exist anymore but we are doing fine interpreting what this market is about. If you have doubt, please clarify or don't bet. I'll try to make things as clear and judgeable in the future as is worth the effort to do.

@Ernie one easy fix would be to set a date such as a person with 1M followers as of January 1 2024 joins Manifold during 2024.

@ClubmasterTransparent Although if they're not a Manifold user now then we don't know whose Twitter count to go back and look for. Maybe just specify something in the resolution criteria how it resolved if follower count becomes unavailable or unreliable.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

What counts as actively using?

@NicoDelon is the official engaged definition determinable for specific accounts by us? Or something reasonable like using it weekly for n of X consecutive weeks or similar.

predicts NO

@Ernie If there’s an official definition you should use it. Otherwise it’s ripe for controversy—if Nate Silver creates a market and makes a couple of bets, is he using the site actively?

@Ernie it's determinable, there's even a market will Manifold reach 1500 active users by end November where people are referencing day to day change and claiming one user has a spreadsheet