3
28
160
2029
31%
chance

Other countries (i.e. China) have zero problems with achieving this.

  • Go to a glasses market

  • They quickly scan your eyes w/a machine (1 min, zero cost) to get your prescription

  • Pick out frames

  • Choose bifocals or not

  • 1 hour later, glasses are done, for as cheap as 10$ if you want, although more likely 50$ or so, due to them restricting the supply of cheaper frames which don't look intentionally ugly.


In this US this process takes hundreds of dollars and multiple weeks.

Will California get its act together and allow this to happen before mid year 2029 in ANY in-person or online store?

If someone makes a claim, I will either go there or investigate, or visit the website, and try it. If they do it, even occasionally, for any personalized prescription, even excluding bifocals, then YES immediately otherwise NO at deadline.

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From what I understand of the opthalmology thing, the two main issues for non-bifocal same day glasses is 1/ having a stock of opthalmic blanks (big round glasses lens that have a given diopter, that are cut to the frame hole shape) that covers a majority of combination of prescriptions, refractive index (normal vs thin vs ultrathin lenses) and coating 2/ having enough machines to do the cutting. Staff at the front end (taking orders, measuring sight, taking payment for product) might also be a problem, but back end is light work and fairly automated already.

Both 1 and 2 are possible, and scalable, but only with a signifiant initial capital outlay (good blanks are not cheap, same for machine). This is not compatible with independant owned optics shop.

Another industry (lab test) can do same day turnover no problem, with some of the same constraints (front end heavy for blood sampling, high automation but very expensive machines). This often works with a central location that is linked with courrier to/from the blood collection location. The central location is large enough for economies of scale. Could work for glasses too.

Its possible this is just a matter of funding (there is fairly limited growth opportunity, people don't change glasses everyday, so not VC friendly), but also there might only be a fairly small market (E. g. I lost my glasses I'm blind as a bat) whereas most people are fine with waiting if it's slightly cheaper (lean manufacturing with no blank stocks, and less cutting machine idle time)

bought Ṁ5 NO

@CamillePerrin Oh, and this already exist as a charity thing in underserved US region. Just, you have a single frame and everything is plastic. I'm guessing Californian will not want "commie glasses no individuality" , so non starter.

@CamillePerrin thanks for the info! After living outside the US for 15 years the system here just looks like a huge scam.

Have you worked in this industry? Why are the blanks so expensive? Yeah the point about lab tests is right on. In comparison, this should be a cake walk since there's no needles, the damage possible (if any) is super slow, users can fairly easily avert damage, no test mixup risks, no transmission of disease risks, etc.

Is the capital just for the blanks? Or is there more to it? I've heard there are huge laws about contact lenses in the US compared to other countries, which is why ours are a lot more expensve (and why people wear the same ones for days/weeks at a time, rather than changing these tiny, nearly free to produce at the margin pieces of plastic daily for health reasons).

I usually order glasses from India for about 1/3 the price and just an extra week for delivery. That's why I can afford to have tons of pairs lying around. But that's annoying in its own way. It feels to me it's due to over reverence and tolerance for regulation on medicine. Really it's just another market which would be awesome if the referees would force the players to compete fairly

@Ernie I don't work in this industry, just some bits and pieces I learned in the (somewhat adjacent sector wise) pharmacy buisness.

Back of the enveloppe, say we need to stock blanks for -10 to +10, in 0.5 diopter increment, maybe 5 combinations of thinness and coating, and 20 combination of cylinder/axes for astigmatism, for each. That's 2k blanks per full set, maybe we need 5 of each as a stock. 100 bucks a blank, for a total of 1M. Pretty penny but desn't seem infeasible.

Machine, I have no idea how much the full auto ones cost, and the sticker price is not public information.

However, I see more manual ones for 1-3k on alibaba, which might be where the Indian arbitrage works: maybe at a certain labor cost differential between india/US it makes sense to be less automated, but with India wage?

I'm not US-based so I don't know about particular laws around medical devices there. I see some sense in being a bit sensitive around contact lens, since there is an infection risk, and loss of sight is particularly disabling. I don't think this ought to extend to fully external glasses though.

@CamillePerrin ah interesting. So yeah there would still need to be a kind of centralization. i'm just surprised that in a place as large as say, nyc, with 10m people reachable in an hour (or 10m people who can drive to your warehouse for glasses at 1/2 cost, available in 1 hour rather than 1 month...) there is not a single person with 1M sitting around (bump it to 10m to cover the rest) to try this. Do people really not value fast delivery?

Yeah, maybe so for contact lenses... otoh, in other countries you can just order them and there isn't this rigamarole of going to pay the eye doctor 100$ to re-diagnose you every year. It's basically just a tax which also costs time. Maybe the US is more litigous and that's why the EU and other countries don't manage these things so hard? still, it seems just like a normal ratchet where anything "important" "for the children" only ever gets regulated more and more cause nobody has the incentive to remove a regulation