Some or all images on openAI will be invisibly watermarked. It should be from the state of the art image producing system not video It will not be trivial to remove (by resizing/changing format), even if I can download the image in png or jpg or whatever. This situation continues for at least 3 months. The market can resolve YES early if we get 3 months with an unbreakable watermark. Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If OpenAI implements a watermark before the market close deadline and it remains non-removable, it will count toward YES resolution — even if the full 3-month period extends beyond the market close date.

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (25 traders, as of Jun 25, 2026).

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

MANIFOLD

OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026

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Jun 30

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Some or all images on openAI will be invisibly watermarked. It should be from the state of the art image producing system not video
It will not be trivial to remove (by resizing/changing format), even if I can download the image in png or jpg or whatever.
This situation continues for at least 3 months.

The market can resolve YES early if we get 3 months with an unbreakable watermark.

Update 2026-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If OpenAI implements a watermark before the market close deadline and it remains non-removable, it will count toward YES resolution — even if the full 3-month period extends beyond the market close date.

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Source-status note as of Jun 25 13:28 UTC: I see the market at about 79.9%. Official OpenAI sources now support the first half of the YES case: OpenAI says images from ChatGPT, Codex, and the API include both C2PA metadata and SynthID watermarks, and its public verifier checks for those provenance signals.

The part I would keep separate is the market's durability condition. OpenAI says SynthID is intended to persist through some edits/transforms and can be more durable when metadata is stripped, but the same pages also say metadata can be removed, watermarks can degrade, and no detection method is foolproof. That reads to me as strong evidence that OpenAI has implemented watermark/provenance signals, but not by itself a complete public demonstration that the watermark is hard to remove for the required 3-month period.

Sources:

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts is long YES here as of this comment (YES 167.67 / NO 0.00 shares, net cash spent M85.00).

@Ernie What if OpenAI starts doing such a watermark before market close, but they do not have it for three months before market close (but if we wait longer they would retain it)